Forecasts for forthcoming week
Fundamental
Dollar
The main event of forthcoming week for dollar will certainly be the the March report of FOMC meeting publication on Wednesday. It becomes especially important considering the noted easing of inflationary risks in the accompanying statement and absolutely opposite forecasts from the head of FOMC Ben Bernanke just couple of days later in senatorial committee. The data on foreign trade, index of productions prices and Michigan sentiment index will be utterly important as well. Economists expect rise in foreign trade deficit, decrease in rates of PPI growth, and also fall of Michigan sentiment index. All these data will be published by the end of the current week. Thus, interested persons may try to use optimistic expectations on dollar relying on Friday`s data considering the labour market, then, the fundamental data, most likely, will start to put pressure upon the american currency again.
Euro
On forthcoming week ECB will make a decision about rates. After March increasing, practically nobody expects one more increasing in April. However, everyone expect the accompanying and press conference of the head of ECB of Jean-Claude Trishe in which concern in inflationary risks, for certain, will sound. Well and, certainly, whether head of ECB will mention notorious "vigilance". Considering an expected growth of a consumer price index in France and Italy, inflationary risks become even more proved. Besides it is expected, that GDP of Eurozone of IV quarter will be revised with growth. Increasing of industrial production in France and Italy is also expected. All this gives the base to speak, that euro will meet forthcoming week with strong positive expectations.
Pound
The forthcoming week for pound will be poor for economic data. The release of foreign trade data will be the only important report.
Yen
Bank of Japan`s decision about rates will become the most important information among all the data from Japan. It is expected at a level of 0,5%. The speech of the head of the Bank of Japan Fukui will be expected with most interest. Unlikely, that he will hint at prospects of toughening of a monetary policy in the nearest future. Especially after the weak Tankan.
The monthly economic report of Bank of Japan will be of great interest as well. Most likely, the Japanese currency again will appear under pressure. For certain, activization carry trades will promote this.
Technics and recommendations
EUR/USD
The pair has shown 2-year maximum on 1,3440 and has rolled away to 1,3370. That is indicative, after so strong data from american labour market, falling of euro had no collapse character as many investors used falling as an opportunity to open new long positions. The nearest support is located on 1,3360 in which area the Friday trades closed. Following support – 1,3315. Strong support – 1,3280. The first resistance – 1.3410, further – 1,3440 and 1.3500.
Recommendations:
Buy at 1.3360, strengthening at the approach to 1,3280. Stop below 1,3250. The first goal – 1,3410, further – 1,3440 and 1,3500.
GBP/USD
Having broken above 1,9800, the pair has been forced to go down. The decision of Bank of England and data from americann labour market lead a rate under key support at 1,9650 which, however, wasn’t clearly broken. The Friday trades were closed at 1,9647. Below support is located on 1,9540, further – 1,9430. The first resistance – 1,9730, further – 1,9800 and 1,9850.
Recommendations:
Buy at 1,9650. Stop at 1,9500. The goal – 1,9730, further – 1,9850.
USD/JPY
The pair has promptly broken through strong resistance at 118,50 and has shown a maximum at strong resistance 119,40 just by the end of the Friday trades. Purchase sentiment are still strong. The first resistance – 120,00, further up to 121,65 special barriers are not noted. The first support – 118,40, further – 117,20.
Recommendations:
Buy on the approach to 119,00. Stop at 118,00. The first goal – 120,00, further – 121,00.
Alexey Milmanov, MyForex
